The first way is the hard way: calculate the payout percentage on each individual bet, multiply those payouts by the amount you want to bet, subtract your original investment, then divide by your original investment.Įxample: the Dolphins were +105, the Seahawks were +100, and the Lions were -128. Obviously, I’ll take a payout better than that, but it’s got to be at least 5-to-1 for me to even consider it. The minimum payout I’m looking for is 5-to-1. It’s very simple: one divided by the true odds, or in this case: The next step is to calculate the minimum payout necessary to make this bet profitable.
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I’ve just explained how to calculate the true odds of winning the parlay. This is about to get very nerdy, isn’t it?
And also because the numbers support making this bet.
Why would you place that bet?īecause the voices in my head are very loud. Those are my true odds to win the parlay: 20% To get the true odds on my parlay, I have to multiply all three of those true odds by each other: 0.59 x 0.55 x 0.63 = 0.20 In my case, I picked my three teams and came up with my true odds for each team: the Dolphins were 59%, the Seahawks 55%, and the Lions 63%, so you would think my overall chances of winning the parlay would be fantastic! You will lose these bets every time.īecause people think they can easily pick three or four winners and cash in, but they don’t understand how math works. Again, this does not apply to you, personally. Instead of placing your $100 bet on a single team for a modest payout, you place that $100 on multiple teams, and if all of those teams win, you can make six, seven, even ten times as much as your original bet. Is it true that with a parlay, you can make insane amounts of money on very small bets?Ībsolutely you can! Just not you, specifically. For those who don’t know what a parlay is, here’s a brief and informative FAQ: Not only did I place those three underdog bets last week, I also (drum roll) bet a parlay. You will still make money when you “break even” on underdog wins and losses (such as a few weeks ago when I went 2-2), but it’s obviously less money, because your wins are barely covering your losses. If you can do that on a regular basis, you’re going to make a lot of money. Winning two out of three underdog bets like I did this week is awesome. Now, about that whole “I decided to get fancy” thing … (Should I give myself a “bye week?” Perhaps, by which I mean, “No!”) This strategy of taking “coin flip” bets and investing on the underdog money line continues to be profitable, even if it is turning into a bit of a grind. The Seahawks and Packers both won, and there was loud and necessary rejoicing. I took the Bills +140, the Seahawks at +108, and the Packers +115. (The previous sentence has been brought to you by NFL bettors since the last decade.) I would have been even further ahead, but I decided to get fancy for the sake of this column.
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Use code CLNS50 for 50% off your first deposit at Betonline.ag.Written By was another week living on the razor’s edge in the land of NFL betting, but I’m happy to report that I survived another gauntlet and came out on top, thanks to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Make sure to follow Mike on Twitter, and follow for the latest up-to-date Boston sports news!Īlso be sure to check out our new sports betting Twitter account all the latest odds and content from CLNS Media.
To bet on 2+ TD’s AND 238 yards/20+ completions at only +170 seems like a bad bet to me. Hurts has been a machine for the Philadelphia offense over the last two seasons, but TD passes can be few and far between. The Jalen Hurts prop is where I hesitate a little bit. Eagles (1-0) – 8:30pm Jalen Hurts Stats ParlayĢ38+ Passing Yards/20+ Completions/2+ TD Passes +170 He’s an easy top-two talent at the position and although Tennessee is a quality opponent, he’s one of those guys where it doesn’t even matter. I don’t know if he’ll hit all three – but I have a hard time betting against it to be frank. I think he get’s himself back on track tonight in Buffalo.įor Josh Allen, all three of these stats would mean a high quality game from the fourth year QB out of Wyoming.
Although I’m an advocate for the “don’t pay or trust running backs” campaign, I do trust Henry to be able to rush for 100 yards on and given… Monday. DeAndre Hopkins to Patriots? Mapu Mania at OTA Practiceĭerrick Henry ran for a modest 82 yards in the Titans loss to the Giants last week and ended up splitting some time with Dontrell Hilliard at the position.
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